2024 CMA Awards: Who should win? Who will win?

The 58th Country Music Association Awards will be handed out Wednesday in a time when country music is having its biggest pop crossover moment in a generation.
Though not nominated for any CMA Awards, global superstar Beyoncé joins artists like multi-platinum pop favorite Post Malone in embracing three chords and the truth. Notable, too, is the increase in mainstream recognition for artists like Morgan Wallen and Lainey Wilson, plus Entertainer of the Year nominees like Luke Combs and Jelly Roll.
But who will win?
Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” an all-genre Hot 100 chart-topper for nearly five consecutive months, makes handicapping the field harder than ever.
The 12-month CMA Award cycle from July 2023 to June 2024 included a mind-blowing series of sold-out arenas and stadiums, among many highlight moments for all CMA-nominated artists.
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From the Tennessean , part of the USA TODAY Network, here’s some insight and predictions about who should and who will win at the festivities.
Who will win: Chris Stapleton
Almost a decade has elapsed since Stapleton had his breakout on the CMA Awards stage performing “Tennessee Whiskey” with Justin Timberlake. In the 10 years since that moment, he’s eclipsed the already significant talent he was in 2015. With co-signs from Willie Nelson and George Strait (among many), he can now flex from filling arenas to stadiums.
Who should win: Jelly Roll
While each nominee’s 2024 is stacked with accolades that earned them this coveted nomination, Jell Roll has done some extra special entertaining of audiences this year. From inviting inmates on stage during his arena shows to singing in the rain, Jelly has pushed the limits of his live show and should be celebrated for how far he has come and what he has done with his fame. He has stated he doesn’t want to win this particular award, but instead the more collaborative ones. If that’s the case Jelly, then stop selling out arenas, bringing out genre-transcending guests and making it rain.
Who will win: “I Had Some Help” – Post Malone (Feat. Morgan Wallen)
Post Malone’s emergence as a country star will go down in the annals of history as a critical moment in the genre’s pop evolution. Morgan Wallen also grew from a 100 million single-seller in under a decade to a pop star capable of holding his own when paired with an artist who sold twice as many hits in the same era. Also, as far as creating a sustainable inroad for country performers wanting commercial marketing and mainstream radio eyes, this song’s inherently hook-driven stylings opened the floodgates.
Who should win: “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” Shaboozey
Shaboozey’s catchy (six-times platinum) song of the summer has broken just about every record a song can break. It holds the record for the longest-leading Hot 100 No. 1 track ever by a solo artist at 17 weeks (and counting). Shaboozey made history with “Tipsy” as the first artist ever to have a single hit No. 1 across all four charts: Country Airplay, Pop Airplay, Adult Pop Airplay, and Rhythmic Airplay, and was also the first-ever Black male artist to top both the Billboard Hot 100 and Country Songs Charts. The song is a brilliant mash up of Shaboozey’s artistry and J-Kwon’s early 2000s party rap delivered with country line-dance energy.
Who will win: Cody Johnson’s “The Painter,” written by Benjy Davis, Kat Higgins, Ryan Larkins
Cody Johnson’s embrace of every facet of creating hit songs should be more closely studied. In the past half-decade, the formerly independent artist’s growth into a dependable Warner Music Group hitmaker has, with each release, depended less on his cultural ties to his Texas roots and Western culture. “The Painter” is representative of Johnson’s latest and most outstanding talent, that of a love song vocalist who imbues his stylings with the earnest power of his will and makes instant classics for ardent supporters of country music’s roots.
Who should win: Cody Johnson’s “Dirt Cheap,” written by Josh Phillips
The Song of the Year award goes to the songwriter for artistic achievement in songwriting. It transcends sales or streams and is rather a celebration of spectacular writing that tells a story, has a clever play on words and even tugs at the heartstrings a little. That song this year is “Dirt Cheap,” written by Josh Phillips and recorded by Cody Johnson. When some big money men try to buy the family farm, the main character of the song loads them up with reasons his dirt ain’t cheap, painting a beautiful picture of life and those who mean the most to him. Phillips even slightly changes each verse to add layers to the story of his little girl growing up, memories of his four-legged friend and the proposal to his wife — all which happened on the kind of dirt you can’t buy cheap.
Who will win: “Leather” – Cody Johnson
Spend time around Cody Johnson and the power of his direct, ambitious nature strikes quickly. He says what he means and then sets out to do it better than he said he could. His double album “Leather” was crafted to be an elevating magnum opus because, within his home state of Texas, 2022 saw him perform in front of 80,000 people at the Houston Rodeo.
Who should win: “Fathers and Sons” – Luke Combs
While Combs’ fifth studio album hasn’t produced runaway smash singles that would rival “When It Rains It Pours” or “Beautiful Crazy,” his album “Fathers and Sons” is a beautiful compilation of songs inspired by fatherhood that collectively sit as a poignant must listen body of work. From “In Case I Ain’t Around” to “The Man He Sees In Me,” Combs has been powerfully impacted by becoming a father (twice!) which has allowed him to see his father (who was the inspiration for Combs’ remake of Tracy Chapman’s “Fast Car”) in a new light and he is letting listeners in on those feelings.
Who will win: Kacey Musgraves
Over the past couple of years Kacey Musgraves has been a champion of using her voice to broaden the confines of country music. Duetting with everyone from Rainbow Kitten Surprise to Sabrina Carpenter and Zach Bryan, Musgraves stays true to her country roots on “Deeper Well,” while proving that she can also spread her musical wings a bit with some fun collabs. Vocally, there are few female singers that can deliver a sweeter sound delivering a poignant musical message.
Who should win: Ashley McBryde
Ashley McBryde’s powerful voice has always come from a very real place. With her 2023 release of “The Devil I Know,” McBryde celebrates all the versions of herself, which allows the listener to easily find themselves in her music. She is relatable (“Light On In The Kitchen”) and even a little bit dangerous (“Blackout Betty”) but she delivers it all with an unmistakable voice laced with truth and grounded in reality. One of country music’s most authentic voices needs to be celebrated for the vocalist she is.
Who will win: Jelly Roll
Five years ago Jelly Roll was a rapping falsetto crooner slowly embracing his vocal gift. Now, he’s a full-throated preacher-style singer whose work on “Save Me,” “I Am Not Okay” and MGK duet “Lonely Road” steadfastly occupies space between folk and soul music. Jelly Roll is not the best pure singer in country music by a long shot. But did his voice touch the most lives in the past year? Absolutely.
Who should win: Chris Stapleton
It’s hard to find a voice that is more powerful, soulful and honest in any genre than Stapleton. Ask 10 people which country singer has the most unmistakably perfect voice and there’s a good chance all 10 would agree that Stapleton is hard to beat. He doesn’t ever seem to shy away from well-written songs that have something to say. Whether it’s “Think I’m In Love With You” which he sang as a stellar duet with pop star Dua Lipa, or “White Horse,” Stapleton still owns the vocal category.
Who will win: The War and Treaty
Country music’s most over-ripe for award-winning stardom act are Michael and Tanya Trotter, The War and Treaty. They earned their second nomination in two years for the CMA’s Vocal Duo of the Year on the strength of their platinum-selling Zach Bryan collaboration “Hey Driver” and their “Lover’s Game” EP, continuing a decade of critical acclaim. They’re also now featured on SiriusXM’s mainstream country-spinning “The Highway” channel, plus achieving greater visibility via mainstream sponsorships galore. Of course, there’s also that thing of every time they touch a stage, anywhere, that live tour crowds spontaneously burst into standing ovations. 2024 is finally their year.
Who should win: The War and Treaty
The War and Treaty are so much more than a vocal duo. They are husband and wife. They do life together and then share it with those who’ve been lucky enough to see them live. They emote a genuine passion that penetrates every performance and they deserve every award that can be given to performers with this much spark. The Trotters can sing straight-up country, lean into gospel and even rock and own every one of those categories in a way that few others can.
Who will win: Shaboozey
Shaboozey’s been a developing superstar for five years. However, he’s the CMA’s New Artist of the Year because he, better than most, understood how to use a mainstream moment as a springboard into something greater than itself. Yes, he’s an African-American country performer with hip-hop roots. However, he’s also just a great artist — full stop. He arrived in Nashville already bringing multiple creative concepts, a pop song with numerous dynamic hooks and a curiosity-driven desire to grow in his awareness — like aspiring stars should, regardless of race or background — of how he wanted what the genre meant to him to enhance his art and life.
Who should win: Megan Moroney
Few country artists in recent memory have arrived in Nashville and continuously superseded what felt like the pre-set course of their superstardom. Megan Moroney already has no fewer than three songs (“Tennessee Orange,” “I’m Not Pretty,” “No Caller ID”) that feel like instant classics that will define the female singer-songwriter moment — an intrinsic piece of country’s current mainstream appeal. In 18 months, she’s already grown from an artist beloved on TikTok to playing 80,000-seat stadiums with Kenny Chesney.